Sunday, January 29, 2012
More actual evidence re: Global warming. sans hysteria.
, January 29, 2012 at 9:03 am :
Burt,
like yourself, I’m primarily am engineer, and started working in the aerospace industry in the late 50′s, officially retiring in the early 2000′s. As such, the work involved both the theory & hands on application such as field problems, and correlation of theory & reality.
About 4 years ago I got interested, in the AGW discussion. In the 40′s, I started recording hi/lo temperatures for a neighbor, who was interested in the weather, for 50 cents a week. Back then, that was big money, and it helped finance my back yard telescope.Seems I thought I could capture the “red shift” of receding galaxies, huge failure, but it was interesting, and picked up some optics along the was, and was a preparation for later work in the IR region for space based sensors.
A related area was, in adaptive & statistical process control, & signal processing, using Wiener & Kalman methods. It was work in this area, that caused me to wonder why the temperature “smoothed” graphs were cut off prior to the of the available data. In process control, delay in getting up to date, or “anticipation” can make the system unstable, and a great deal of effort is put into predicting where the process will be.
So I started looking at the available temperature sets UAH, RSS, GISS, etc., and started spectral analysis & Fourier convolution filtering, since celestial mechanics noted that there are secular variations present. In posting over at a site (RC), the response was interesting, especially personal comments. Having been in more heated engineering/science “discussions”, then I care to think about, I knew that personal comments were a sure way to an immediate career change, and it pointed to a discussion based more on emotion & personal views then science.
To make a long story short, here is a sample graph using Fourier convolution filtering, (a 20 & 50 yr lo pass), on a composite anomaly of stations which started recording prior to 1800 (CEL, Debilt, Uppsalla, etc.), to evaluate periodic components. Using this method dose get me to the endpoints, and gives insight as to periodic “energy” in the raw data.
http://www.4shared.com/photo/I04JY2jI/Ave14_2010_FF_20yr.html
http://www.4shared.com/photo/4FKXcwnw/Ave14_2010_FF_50yr.html
From the graphs, I think I’ll keep my Union suit handy.
Good article!
!
Here’s an estimate of the warming capability from no less than the late Stephen Schneider:
“It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.”
Schneider S. & Rasool S., “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols – Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate”, Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141
like yourself, I’m primarily am engineer, and started working in the aerospace industry in the late 50′s, officially retiring in the early 2000′s. As such, the work involved both the theory & hands on application such as field problems, and correlation of theory & reality.
About 4 years ago I got interested, in the AGW discussion. In the 40′s, I started recording hi/lo temperatures for a neighbor, who was interested in the weather, for 50 cents a week. Back then, that was big money, and it helped finance my back yard telescope.Seems I thought I could capture the “red shift” of receding galaxies, huge failure, but it was interesting, and picked up some optics along the was, and was a preparation for later work in the IR region for space based sensors.
A related area was, in adaptive & statistical process control, & signal processing, using Wiener & Kalman methods. It was work in this area, that caused me to wonder why the temperature “smoothed” graphs were cut off prior to the of the available data. In process control, delay in getting up to date, or “anticipation” can make the system unstable, and a great deal of effort is put into predicting where the process will be.
So I started looking at the available temperature sets UAH, RSS, GISS, etc., and started spectral analysis & Fourier convolution filtering, since celestial mechanics noted that there are secular variations present. In posting over at a site (RC), the response was interesting, especially personal comments. Having been in more heated engineering/science “discussions”, then I care to think about, I knew that personal comments were a sure way to an immediate career change, and it pointed to a discussion based more on emotion & personal views then science.
To make a long story short, here is a sample graph using Fourier convolution filtering, (a 20 & 50 yr lo pass), on a composite anomaly of stations which started recording prior to 1800 (CEL, Debilt, Uppsalla, etc.), to evaluate periodic components. Using this method dose get me to the endpoints, and gives insight as to periodic “energy” in the raw data.
http://www.4shared.com/photo/I04JY2jI/Ave14_2010_FF_20yr.html
http://www.4shared.com/photo/4FKXcwnw/Ave14_2010_FF_50yr.html
From the graphs, I think I’ll keep my Union suit handy.
Good article!
!
Here’s an estimate of the warming capability from no less than the late Stephen Schneider:
“It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.”
Schneider S. & Rasool S., “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols – Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate”, Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141
- The real problem is still the observed data since 1998 in ocean heat, stratosphere temperature – they show a no to a small fraction of what the IPCC or main AGW models were predicting.
This is used to present an argument that that positive temperature feedback to ncreased CO2 not only May not exist, measured data indicates the feedback is likely negative.
Without the positive feedback, a lot of the scenarios on warming would require a revisit of the models.
Past decade or so measured data continues to deviate from the IPCC and agw proponent’s computer models. This is the real reasons why the consensus is fraying. Scientific theories no matter how elegant cannot deny measured observations – that’s how the null-hypothesis gets disproved.
- Lets see I can take the opinion of some obscure engineer or a world renown engineer. I can take the opinion of some second year physics major or the word of the most important physicist (Freeman Dyson) of our modern era. Wow, hard choice don’t you think?
I am also an engineer by trade and like Rutan, had concerns for how the science was being conducted. I researched and evaluated and came to the same conclusion as Rutan: The data has been manipulated ( which was proven in the Climategate emails), the parameters of the IPCC climate models are horribly incomplete and the raw observed temperatures dont relate to the “homogenized” data from the temperature reporting bureaus. BTW if you want to reconsider your opinion, now is the time. Take one look at this article from the MET Office in the UK (THE most important AGW institute) and you will have to hold your head low and immediately apologize to Mr. Rutan.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
-
Saturday, January 28, 2012
1st Nations and Dirty Oil.
A reflection on the wealth of natural resources to whom ever cares to work, and our propensity to shunt the dirty-ness of our gasoline to other places in the world.
Foolishness, and very ill informed. Many first nations people can be proud because of their work in Canadian mines, forestry, oil and gas. Many work in the oil sands and do very well for themselves, and Bravo for that!
Dirty oil is such a yesterday word. Take a look at Nancy Pelosi's Bakersfield oil wells, and come back and call us dirty. Or why not take a cruise down the coast of Nigeria. How many Gulf-size oilspills have been covered up there?
No, we seem to be very fine with turning on the key and driving away keeping our dirt in other people's back yard. All Canadians including 1st Nations people benefit from that.
__________________________________________
Foolishness, and very ill informed. Many first nations people can be proud because of their work in BC mines, forestry, oil and gas. Many work in the oil sands and do very well for themselves, and Bravo for that! Dirty oil is such a yesterday word. Take a look at Nancy Pelosi's
Bakersfield oil wells, and come back and call us dirty. Or why not take a cruise down the coast of Nigeria. How many Gulf-type oil spills have been covered up there? No, we seem to be very fine with turning on the key and driving away keeping our dirt in other people's back yard.
Wall Street Journal and Anthropological Global Warming?
This week a rather unknown and obscure newspaper published this article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204301404577171531838421366.html
Of course it has caused a little stir, the question is when will this "settled science" wake up and find its a has been?
A Face Book dialogue: Sixteen Concerned Scientists: No Need to Panic About Global Warming online.wsj.com
Of course it has caused a little stir, the question is when will this "settled science" wake up and find its a has been?
A Face Book dialogue: Sixteen Concerned Scientists: No Need to Panic About Global Warming online.wsj.com
Sixteen
scientists write in The Wall Street Journal that there's no compelling
scientific argument for drastic action to 'decarbonize' the world's
economy.
A challenge to Novelity in thought.:
Dear Diana:
Ah yea IQ the intelligence "quotient"(I would guess about 150ish. Close?) Hmm, I don't think many have made it this far in an argument for a while. It’s relevance pretty much breaks down in people's 20s. You are bright, and can go far if you can get past reading but one book on Religion and Philosophy.
You do know that this thought has grown out of the 1890s right?
Perhaps you think you can prove that no one has made a significant contribution to this form of Existentialism since the 1890s. Camus and Sartre are the poster children of the last century, but they were hardly powerhouses of thought...pathetic really. What I have been trying to explain to you is that your thought was printed in 1973. It has been prominent to this day, because they are extension and application of thought that was birthed in 1849: Perhaps earlier. **However, it is clearly obvious these thoughts are hardly original. Rudolf Bultmann’s work to de-mythologize the Bible dominated mainline theology thru to the 1930s. Bultmann’s work was error prone, and rather shoddy, but aside from that, the impetus behind his idea really arose under the shadow of Voltaire--with Immanuel Kant and David Hume,( a century earlier)—both philosophies were understood by so few.
Kierkegaard knew Hegel; he actually attended some of his lectures in fact. Nietzsche secularized Existential thought, which was straight from Kierkegaard. (Without his admitting he had stolen his ideas from an obscure Danish philosopher). Some serious philosophers say there hasn’t been a new thought since Heidegger. Having not read your textbook, I really don’t know what it says—obviously. But the “fear thing” has been around since at least David Hume. “People are religious out of fear” just doesn’t cut it as a novel concept. I just hope your author sourced and credited the appropriate contributors. I can’t make a comment about that because I haven’t looked at the book. Well look, I have almost written another soliloquy or meandering megillah… We ought to meet. Perhaps when OJ or Dustin come over, or I actually get away to Vic. The advantage if you came here, is that I could take you into my library and give you some new reading.
· **1974, grade 9 English class on mythologies. Fear of death, concurrent and similar myths and story lines. But only myth, the sort of which is patently not the truth, nor intended to be believed as real historical truth.
Friday, January 27, 2012
An interesting dialogue with an old friend...
- If I get started leveling blame all parties get tarred and feathered... 16 trillion deficit? Isn't that more than all the other presidents added together? It will take down the world eventually...
6 minutes agoCarl Ek- Owen. That's not the issue. Debt ceiling is not the same as citizens debt and budget. Countries hav means to raise and lower taxes, and issue bonds. Case in point: all the conservatives scaremongering about interest rates and inflation skyrocking since 2008? Nada. These things are managed. And when countries WANT and CAN reduce the fiscal differences it can be done. Europe crash is slightly different because there are so many fragile dominoes pushing each other. But USA? Remember even Canada recovered from Trudeaus liberal spending. And I must say that If Harper was here, he'd be a freaking communist in relation to these GOPers.
about a minute agoOwen Abrey- We have a conservative government that supports a low interest rate. But you are right to a point. The problem I have is when I hear arguments of invincibility. 10 years ago, Greece, Italy, and Spain were considered able to handle their debt without breaking a sweat. I am not sure if this isn't pure genius in a way. The non-stop printing presses of the fed are ultimately feeding the banks who are buying sovereign debt with it. So long as all that capital is locked away in the bowls of the banks, we will stave off disaster perhaps--in the near term. If they had allowed those trillions to actually be distributed through out the economy, the US would definitely be back in the doldrums of stagflation.
By the way, I appreciate your commentary. Canadian conservatism could be an interesting contrast for historians if nothing else..
Monday, January 16, 2012
Sunday, January 15, 2012
The Northern Gate Way Debate:
Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Pipeline+proposal+fraught+with+risks/5998741/story.html#ixzz1jYJwhvrr
Aleithia
10:08 AM on 1/15/2012
I can appreciate this is an opinion piece.
Opinions are fine, but when we proffer our opinions we should be careful about exaggeration. A few points to calm the hysteria down a bit: Enbridge owns hundreds of miles of pipe line it didn't build. The lines came to Enbridge as a "bonus" when Enbridge was acquiring other assets. Large sections are 40-50 years old. Some of the pipe was corroded, and was not accurately assessed as such in time to fix it.
Since corrosion is a valid worry, why not demand that Canada's pipeline be ultra modern with a minimum of 8% Molybdenum in it's steel. Off shore oil platforms are made of it, they don't rust. Moly steel can last for 100 years in salt water without a spec of rust. This is one solution that could tackle one fear, demonstrating Enbridge and the Governments are listening.
Opinions are fine, but when we proffer our opinions we should be careful about exaggeration. A few points to calm the hysteria down a bit: Enbridge owns hundreds of miles of pipe line it didn't build. The lines came to Enbridge as a "bonus" when Enbridge was acquiring other assets. Large sections are 40-50 years old. Some of the pipe was corroded, and was not accurately assessed as such in time to fix it.
Since corrosion is a valid worry, why not demand that Canada's pipeline be ultra modern with a minimum of 8% Molybdenum in it's steel. Off shore oil platforms are made of it, they don't rust. Moly steel can last for 100 years in salt water without a spec of rust. This is one solution that could tackle one fear, demonstrating Enbridge and the Governments are listening.
Aleithia
10:18 AM on 1/15/2012
How comparable are the pipeline risks to risk that happens every day when we truck gasoline, and diesel and oil products to Kitimat or Prince Rupert? Will there be a set-back minimum that keeps the pipeline at least a certain distance away from major rivers? If so, it should be apparent, we already tolerate far greater risk from the hydrocarbons we truck than those posed by a pipeline. The EPA has determined hydrocarbon leaks, (including ruptures) are 22 barrels of oil per billion. Or .002 litres per km. How does that risk compare with the hydrocarbons we know spill from our automobiles every year?
@Bruno 1997: More facts to slake the
hysteria: Since the Exon Valdez, over 1600 tankers have shipped oil
down the west coast of Canada.
Much has been made of risk. In fact, that is a smoke-screen. Risk is a number: it is at least theoretically quantifiable. So the new term/concept is inevitability. Inevitability is the security blanket of the opposers of the pipeline, because it is always guaranteed to equal at least 100%, by stretching risk to infinity. Of course, since this is an emotional issue, that fact is conveniently hidden. Consider how this logic would apply to any disaster: For example, there is natural gas being piped to Prince Rupert, where it is being compressed into CNG product for shipment over seas. There is a risk this plant will blow up. It is a small number, but if you extend time to infinity, the risk is 100%.
Much has been made of risk. In fact, that is a smoke-screen. Risk is a number: it is at least theoretically quantifiable. So the new term/concept is inevitability. Inevitability is the security blanket of the opposers of the pipeline, because it is always guaranteed to equal at least 100%, by stretching risk to infinity. Of course, since this is an emotional issue, that fact is conveniently hidden. Consider how this logic would apply to any disaster: For example, there is natural gas being piped to Prince Rupert, where it is being compressed into CNG product for shipment over seas. There is a risk this plant will blow up. It is a small number, but if you extend time to infinity, the risk is 100%.
@Bruno continued: Similarly, where the highway parallels the Fraser
river, there is a risk a tanker truck will over turn dumping
hydrocarbons disastrously. That risk becomes 100% if you spread the
time to infinity. This is why this is flawed reasoning. If there is
anything that has risk, it always must be inevitable if you spread it
over enough time. Regrettably, many people in BC have never been taught
to think critically, so when some emotional idea like an inevitable oil
spill is proposed. Suddenly moved by emotion the public jumps on
board, not realizing they have been duped.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Retrrospect and the Grace of God.
Go backwards half your age. If you knew then what you know now, what would you have done different? On comment under this post, please put half of the age you are now, and what you would have done different at that time... Curious to see your posts! thanks my lovies xoxox
_______________________________________
Owen Abrey I am not sure about the value of this. I think the intent is to determine to change future decisions for the good based on the mistakes we have made in our past. But the experiences of life bring a wisdom that we wouldn't have today via any other way. I don't mean to discount those decisions we have made to change a direction toward God and away from destructive life styles, I just think about how God's work in our lives is a work of grace: he works more powerfully with our weaknesses, and failures than He could have had we not stumbled, bruised our knees and our pride so that we were ready to allow Him to change us.
3 hours ago ·
Owen Abrey For me the challenge is being mired in regret. All I get is stuck there. This is the challenge with retrospect. There needs to be a place where we lodge our failures in the sea of God's forgetfulness in a way we trust Him for our future.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
The Northern Gate way and Public Perceptions.
Perceptions. This is a game of perceptions. 2l/1000 km is the established rate of pipeline leaking risk, with ruptures included. There is more oil leaked onto public highways per kilometer per day.
Perceptions. Ever go to Google earth and try to find the oil-sands? You might be surprised how difficult it is. Because we have the perception that the big oil companies are tearing up northern Alberta to mine that "dirty oil". Why is it we have that perception? I had to see for my self.
I suggest you check it.
Perceptions, all about perceptions. We perceive that instead of Canadian oil sands oil, that oil should come somewhere else. We westerners like to pee in other nation's pool. Ever see Nigeria's coast line? We have dirty oil? See its all about perceptions. We cannot perceive that Canada's environmental standards make the oil sands far cleaner than many alternatives. Because we aren't told all the facts, we sometimes perceive things differently than they actually are.
Read more: http://www.canada.com/business/Long+review+process+Gateway+pipeline+begin/5960084/story.html#ixzz1ioFAt2qE
Perceptions. Ever go to Google earth and try to find the oil-sands? You might be surprised how difficult it is. Because we have the perception that the big oil companies are tearing up northern Alberta to mine that "dirty oil". Why is it we have that perception? I had to see for my self.
I suggest you check it.
Perceptions, all about perceptions. We perceive that instead of Canadian oil sands oil, that oil should come somewhere else. We westerners like to pee in other nation's pool. Ever see Nigeria's coast line? We have dirty oil? See its all about perceptions. We cannot perceive that Canada's environmental standards make the oil sands far cleaner than many alternatives. Because we aren't told all the facts, we sometimes perceive things differently than they actually are.
Read more: http://www.canada.com/business/Long+review+process+Gateway+pipeline+begin/5960084/story.html#ixzz1ioFAt2qE
Friday, January 6, 2012
A facebook/youtube on Castle Law.
A discussion around Castle Law in Cranbrook, BC.
Antoinette Louw
I can relate to your link. Been there, twice actually, in SA. Not something I'd say publicly on FB though. Never know how it can come back to haunt me again... Luckily I did not kill him. He ran away claiming that a mad woman was shooting at him. Had charges against me for firing a fire arm in a residential area. Then charges got dropped after the investigation. Six days later, 2 men showed up, broke the window, and I phoned the police letting them know that I'm going out with 2 pistols, since there are 2 of them. Told them to hurry, since I'll try to hold them as long as I can. They arrived 5 very long minutes later and arrested the idiots. Here in Canada you are not allowed to protect yourself like that. And now in SA, no more either!
Owen Abrey
32 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
We will see a castle law in Harper's second majority. It actually still exists under common law and the magna carta, because of its age and precedence it cannot be dismissed.
Antoinette Louw
29 minutes ago
Antoinette Louw
Sorry Owen, English being my second language, I don't understand your message.
I mean I can read it, but are not familiar with the terminology you used.
Owen Abrey
15 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
In the 13th century a revolutionary document was signed by the King of England. It was the first step towards democracy and human rights. It put all men under the rule of law, and guaranteed you could not be thrown in jail until it could be proved by law. It also had a provision for being able to defend one's castle by force. The document has evolved over the years, in the 1800s the castle law was used to give a person a right to protect one's home with a weapon. Society has many laws, but they are not supposed to conflict with common law. The power of common law brought about the Charter of rights and freedoms
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=magna+carta&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.
www.google.ca
Share
Antoinette Louw
7 minutes ago
Antoinette Louw
You would think that it would work like that, but in reality it doesn't. I recently read on CTV.ca about 2 instances where people shot at intruders while defending themselves and got charged and ended up being found guilty. It really scared me when I read it, because it seems the line for protecting yourself, and breaking the law is incredibly fine.
Owen Abrey
5 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
The problem is cases are not presented with appropriate precedence. Then poor judgements are made. The possibility for appeal is a heavy financial burden, so they get away with it.
Owen Abrey
3 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
It still exists in Canada. To be perfectly covered, they need to be in your house. You need to believe life and limb is threatened and you were defending your self/family. And my RCMP friends say make sure you shoot to kill. It shuts down the thief's testimony, so there can be no contradiction to your story.
Out side, you can fire a weapon in the air with impunity.
but you can't point it and shoot it at someone
Watch to see Harpers government pass legislation clarifying castle rights.
Antoinette Louw
I can relate to your link. Been there, twice actually, in SA. Not something I'd say publicly on FB though. Never know how it can come back to haunt me again... Luckily I did not kill him. He ran away claiming that a mad woman was shooting at him. Had charges against me for firing a fire arm in a residential area. Then charges got dropped after the investigation. Six days later, 2 men showed up, broke the window, and I phoned the police letting them know that I'm going out with 2 pistols, since there are 2 of them. Told them to hurry, since I'll try to hold them as long as I can. They arrived 5 very long minutes later and arrested the idiots. Here in Canada you are not allowed to protect yourself like that. And now in SA, no more either!
Owen Abrey
32 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
We will see a castle law in Harper's second majority. It actually still exists under common law and the magna carta, because of its age and precedence it cannot be dismissed.
Antoinette Louw
29 minutes ago
Antoinette Louw
Sorry Owen, English being my second language, I don't understand your message.
I mean I can read it, but are not familiar with the terminology you used.
Owen Abrey
15 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
In the 13th century a revolutionary document was signed by the King of England. It was the first step towards democracy and human rights. It put all men under the rule of law, and guaranteed you could not be thrown in jail until it could be proved by law. It also had a provision for being able to defend one's castle by force. The document has evolved over the years, in the 1800s the castle law was used to give a person a right to protect one's home with a weapon. Society has many laws, but they are not supposed to conflict with common law. The power of common law brought about the Charter of rights and freedoms
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=magna+carta&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.
www.google.ca
Share
Antoinette Louw
7 minutes ago
Antoinette Louw
You would think that it would work like that, but in reality it doesn't. I recently read on CTV.ca about 2 instances where people shot at intruders while defending themselves and got charged and ended up being found guilty. It really scared me when I read it, because it seems the line for protecting yourself, and breaking the law is incredibly fine.
Owen Abrey
5 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
The problem is cases are not presented with appropriate precedence. Then poor judgements are made. The possibility for appeal is a heavy financial burden, so they get away with it.
Owen Abrey
3 minutes ago
Owen Abrey
It still exists in Canada. To be perfectly covered, they need to be in your house. You need to believe life and limb is threatened and you were defending your self/family. And my RCMP friends say make sure you shoot to kill. It shuts down the thief's testimony, so there can be no contradiction to your story.
Out side, you can fire a weapon in the air with impunity.
but you can't point it and shoot it at someone
Watch to see Harpers government pass legislation clarifying castle rights.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Tales from an Inuit elder...
Sarah Nangmalik
I know it must have been scary at the same time too, I know I would be:) Yes, some people up here take some amazing photos.
There was one man who traveled from Greenland to Canada on kayak (qayaq) high arctic and there was a group of narwhale taking turns two by two on each side of his kayak and lifted his kayak on both sides and carried him for many, many kilometers. Narwhales were friendly and curious and kept watching him until he landed. Our Inuit elders often say if a person falls in the water where there are whales nearby, a person will be carried to shore for safety by whales, I myself have not seen that yet in my life:) When I was a teenager and during my early twenties we lived in Nanisivik, a mining town 30 miles from a community of Arctic Bay. There was one elder who used to watch me jog very early mornings ( I was a marathon runner for several years back then and I ran alot for long distances) One day, he told me to go to the point near Arctic Bay and sit by the shore between 6:00 - 7:00am and listen to the narwhales sing. Now, he never shared that to anyone but me and that was truly my gift from him and every now and then I still go to the same area when I visit the community during late summer and listen to the narwhales sing, the sound they make is so beautiful:)
Owen Abrey
about a minute ago
Owen Abrey
You are an artist with your words... I think I can hear them too. [:)] You are blessed Sarah, as surely as Abraham's wife. I do pray God's richest for you in 2012.
I know it must have been scary at the same time too, I know I would be:) Yes, some people up here take some amazing photos.
There was one man who traveled from Greenland to Canada on kayak (qayaq) high arctic and there was a group of narwhale taking turns two by two on each side of his kayak and lifted his kayak on both sides and carried him for many, many kilometers. Narwhales were friendly and curious and kept watching him until he landed. Our Inuit elders often say if a person falls in the water where there are whales nearby, a person will be carried to shore for safety by whales, I myself have not seen that yet in my life:) When I was a teenager and during my early twenties we lived in Nanisivik, a mining town 30 miles from a community of Arctic Bay. There was one elder who used to watch me jog very early mornings ( I was a marathon runner for several years back then and I ran alot for long distances) One day, he told me to go to the point near Arctic Bay and sit by the shore between 6:00 - 7:00am and listen to the narwhales sing. Now, he never shared that to anyone but me and that was truly my gift from him and every now and then I still go to the same area when I visit the community during late summer and listen to the narwhales sing, the sound they make is so beautiful:)
Owen Abrey
about a minute ago
Owen Abrey
You are an artist with your words... I think I can hear them too. [:)] You are blessed Sarah, as surely as Abraham's wife. I do pray God's richest for you in 2012.
Monday, January 2, 2012
On Iran's threat
Jonathan from Saskatoon
Funny how the America bashers are already claiming that the US intends to invade Iran for oil. America already has adequate supplies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, West Africa, South America and Canada. What this is about is stability in the Middle East. For almost 35 years Iran has been rattling it's scimitars at every opportunity, frequently waging war against Iraq, supporting terrorism in Israel and around the world. Its one of two states that would be likely to actually use nuclear weapons if it could get them and would definitely not be shy about threatening to use them to dominate the Arab world. The inevitable conflict with Israel would ignite the powder keg and have the potential to start WWIII and a global terrorism spree that would give us first hand knowledge of how Israelis have been living for the last 40 years.I don't mind calling out the Americans when they cross the line, but they established themselves as teh world's police because the rest of the West has been too busy navel gazing since the Berlin wall came down, and because they have already been dragged into 2 global conflicts they wanted nothing to do with.
Funny how the America bashers are already claiming that the US intends to invade Iran for oil. America already has adequate supplies from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, West Africa, South America and Canada. What this is about is stability in the Middle East. For almost 35 years Iran has been rattling it's scimitars at every opportunity, frequently waging war against Iraq, supporting terrorism in Israel and around the world. Its one of two states that would be likely to actually use nuclear weapons if it could get them and would definitely not be shy about threatening to use them to dominate the Arab world. The inevitable conflict with Israel would ignite the powder keg and have the potential to start WWIII and a global terrorism spree that would give us first hand knowledge of how Israelis have been living for the last 40 years.I don't mind calling out the Americans when they cross the line, but they established themselves as teh world's police because the rest of the West has been too busy navel gazing since the Berlin wall came down, and because they have already been dragged into 2 global conflicts they wanted nothing to do with.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Iran Ticking
I have a feeling of inevitability on the doom of Iran. But not terror. War is hell, and woe to the nation by whence it comes. Resorting to evil to defeat evil is a sad conundrum we know too well, but we also know the consequences of leaving evil to its own ends. I weep for the innocents. The people who have no power to change this direction, but will suffer because of it. To cast our eyes past Iran and realize that Iran, an evil unchecked is behind the lingering devastation in Iraq and Afghanistan, begs an answer to the question, if THIS time we defeat evil,will it at least fall back for a while and let us build a new Marshal Plan for the Middle East? Naw, too idealistic... must be dreaming.
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Since our company was involved in green energy, I guess I could have looked at only the CAGW sources of information. My job would have been a lot easier but it wouldn’t have felt right to me, as an engineer. I was fortunate in that my boss accepted my conclusions. He also found them convincing. I guess there are a lot of people who don’t have that freedom.
The first difficulty people have with learning the truth about a highly emotional and politically charged subject like this is that they bring their preconceptions to the analysis of the information. There is then a strong tendency to pay close attention to evidence that supports your belief while heavily discounting evidence on the other side. I can’t explain how to overcome this bias; what I try to do is to understand the issue completely from the side that I am naturally opposite to.
So the situation now has become fractured. The CAGW viewpoint is common in general science and the media. CAGW supporters control most of the journals that publish ecology related articles. They defend their ideas with peer review in these journals. At the same time, the geologists, who take a much longer view of the climate (and have less faith in politically motivated modeling), publish anti-CAGW articles.
That’s the political situation in the sciences at the moment. So to see the peer-reviewed anti-CAGW articles, you will have to read papers that are published outside the CAGW controlled literature. Sadly, you will have to explore more than “skepticalscience.com” and “realclimate.org”.
This is not a journey that I can walk for you. You will have to do the analysis yourself. I could point out some articles for you but I doubt you’ll read them. But the tide is definitely turning in that anti-CAGW articles are now being published on neutral ground. Oh, what the heck. Here’s a recent article from the prestigious journal Science, “Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum” by Schmittner, Urban, Shakun, Mahowald, Clark, Bartlein, Mix and Rosell-Melé: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385.abstract I’m at a university and so I’m not sure if this is behind a paywall so here’s another link for the same article: http://www.princeton.edu/~nurban/pubs/lgm-cs-uvic.pdf
Picking up a diatribe from Roland Doucet: .....
Thousands of the best, most educated scientists on the planet agree to the tune of 97% that the global temperature is going up (simple measurement!), that it's because increased CO2 in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels, and that the increased temperature causes climate change, including an increase in extreme weather events—again, simple measurement and counting! Give it up and embrace integrity.